The Most Popular Betting Myths

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Posted at December 22nd, 2010 Add your comment

In this article, we will look at two big betting myths that many tipsters still believe. The truth is, they are losing money by doing that. So what are these myths and why are they not true?

Streaks

Well, most people believe one simple thing. If you have a losing month or two, you are a bad punter. If you have just lost ten bets in a row, you do not know anything about the sport. On the other hand, if you have just had a great streak of ten won bets, you are a legend. If you have won for two months in a row, you are doing everything right. OK - those are the basic assumptions. And chances are, the results might be right. People in the first group are definitely more likely to be bad tipsters, while people in the second one are more likely to be good punters. However, the main point is - ten bets or even two months are insignificant - in fact, there is still an ongoing debate about what is a significant sample. However, most people agree that you can start accurately judging one's performance when you reach numbers around 500 bets (more obviously equals better). The myth here is that there really isn't a reason to think that your good streak will carry on for some time (or that a bad streak will continue forever, so you have to change your strategy in a radical way).

But the main advice here concerns your own performance. If you are on a great streak, there are definitely things that you should not do. Trust me, you will feel invincible. I have been through that a couple of times and until I have finally understood the whole thing. You must stay realistic and although you may definitely up the stakes (since your overall bankroll has increased due to that streak), you must not start throwing money away. Also, do not bet on more events that you would usually do just because you have more funds available - if the match wasn't looking that great before, it is still not worth it.

On the other hand, you must also know how to deal with bad streaks. As with good streaks, it can all be about a little bit of luck. If you are a proven winner and know that you are choosing your bets in the right way, there is absolutely no need to change anything. Maybe you can tone down your stakes a little if you need to calm down a little until you get back on the right track. But if you continue doing what you are doing (and staking according to your bankroll), you should be just fine. However, if you are unsure about what you are doing, there are many ways in which you can regain your confidence - read betting articles, discuss your problems with other experienced people, etc. There really are many options.

Betting Systems

We all know them. And even I (like many others) was excited when I discovered them. Fortunately for me, I learned the truth before I could lose a fortune with them. The biggest problem with betting systems is that there is no way you can make money out of them if you cannot find good bets (bets which have value). Because if you bet without value, these systems work exactly the way they work for games like roulette or blackjack. Which means you will inevitably lose over a longer period of time. There is no way around this, trust me. If the house (or bookmaker, in sports betting) has advantage, no betting system can overturn this. You can try to make one on your own, but mathematics will always prove you wrong, so why bother in the first place?

Maybe you are still unconvinced, so let me show you an example. The Martingale system is perhaps the most popular system. When you lose your first bet, you double the stakes for the second one. This is definitely stupid for odds below 2.00, since you would have to more than double your stakes in order to make it work (if you double your bet at odds 1.72, for example, you will not even get your original stake back even if you win that bet). So let us consider the case with odds of evens, or 2.00. If you do your analysis correctly and the bet has a chance of at least 50% to succeed, it is OK to use this system, although you would still need a huge bank and there would still be a higher chance that you would go bankrupt than there would be if you just used flat betting, for example. However, if your analysis is wrong, you will go bankrupt very, very quickly. Every single step, every single time you double your bet, your chance will still be under 50% if your analysis is wrong – you would have to be insanely lucky to make money out of this. Of course, the problem might get a little bit problematic in real life sports betting – one time, the real chance to win might be 40% and the second time 60% - but this does not change the fact that you have to be a very good tipster if you want to have a chance to profit from this system (and you will probably not profit even if you are a very good tipster). All in all, forget all the Martingale and Fibonacci systems. Even simple flat betting works much better over the long run.

In conclusion, there are many problems which you should avoid in betting and I think I have clearly presented two of them. The result is clear - do not overestimate the importance of lucky or unlucky streaks and do not trust the popular betting systems. They do not work.

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