Baseball Betting Strategy

Baseball betting may be one of the most profitable forms of sports gambling. The game’s data-driven approach, an abundance of readily trackable advanced analytics, and 162-game season all contribute to a climate conducive to winning wagers. All that is required is a handicapper ready to invest time in data analysis, a little bit of luck, and the appropriate betting methods or tactics.

There are several ways to wager on Major League Baseball games. The majority of bettors concentrate on underdogs since they win more often in baseball than in any other major sports betting. However, there are strategies for betting on the run line or totals that may be used with either favored or underdog teams.

Additionally, there are methods that focus on moneyline wagers, run line wagers, and a variety of other variables and baseball betting tips. While no technique or policy will always be perfect, they will significantly increase your chances of being a good sports gambler.

Baseball Betting Strategy

Variety of Baseball Bets

When betting on baseball games, there are four primary sorts of bets you may place: moneyline bets, run line bets, totals bets, and proposition (prop) bets. Moneyline bets are the most common form of wager placed on baseball games. We’ll go into more detail about each of them below.

Runline Bets

The term “spread” appears just under the date/time, indicating that we are discussing spread betting. In other words, spread betting is when you wager on a team to win by a certain number of runs. When betting on baseball games, this is sometimes referred to as the “Run Line.”

How many runs are there? It is determined by the rectangular box you are examining.

Detroit -1.5/Boston +1.5 is the spread in the top box. Detroit -4.5/Boston +4.5 is the spread in the bottom box. The team whose name is preceded by a negative number is the favored. The squad with the higher number is considered the underdog.

  • If you wager on Detroit utilizing the highest odds, the Tigers must win by at least two runs to cover your wager.
  • If you wager on Detroit utilizing the worst odds, the Tigers must win by at least five runs to cover your wager.
  • If you wager on Boston (using either set of odds), you do not need the Red Sox to win in order to win your wager.
  • If you choose Boston +1.5, you will win as long as they do not lose by more than two runs.
spread baseball strategy

Spread betting markets

Futures Bets

A futures bet is a wager on the outcome of an event that will occur in the future. That makes sense, doesn’t it? Futures odds are most typically used in baseball betting, where they are set on each team’s chances of winning a division, a league pennant, or a World Series championship. The following is an illustration of the probability of winning the World Series in 2022:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (+325)
  • New York Yankees (+600)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (+650)
  • Oakland A’s (+900)
  • San Diego Padres (+1200)

Futures MLB odds tend to change a great deal throughout the course of a 162-game baseball season, owing to the number of events that might occur. If you place your bets at the right moment, you may obtain futures odds that are attackable.

Baseball Futures Bets

Futures Bets

Prop Bets

Baseball prop betting is a more unusual technique to place a wager on the game. Over the years, prop bets have been associated with the Super Bowl betting experience; nevertheless, prop bets are now accepted by almost every site that offers baseball betting odds as well as on football.

These props may be used for almost everything that occurs during and around a baseball game, and some of them can be pretty imaginative. For example, you may place a wager on whether or not a certain game will go into overtime.

You may place a wager on whether or not either side will score a run in the opening inning of the game.

Also available is the wagering on whether or not both teams will hit at least one home run in a given game. For example, some online real money baseball betting companies may provide odds on which starting pitcher will record the most strikeouts throughout the season. The options are almost limitless.

Prop bets also tend to have higher rewards than straight bets. However, although the chances of properly guessing whether or not a game would go into extra innings are tiny, you stand to gain a significant amount of money if you manage to choose the winning side of the prop.

Over/Under or Total Bets

It is possible to utilize statistics as your own personal weapons to forecast the success of a sports team in this method. You’ll have to rely on the team’s or teams’ recent performances. You’ll also need to comprehend the terms earned average run and batting average, which are both used in baseball. The earned run average (ERA) of a pitcher is the number of runs allowed in nine innings. The batting average is calculated by dividing the average number of hits by the total number of bats used by a team.

Over/Under or Total Bets

Total bets

Best Baseball Betting Strategy

We are going to consider some different baseball betting strategies and baseball betting tips to learn the most beneficial and effective ones.

Moneyline Underdog

Underdogs are typically considered to be underdogs for a good cause. Teams who are lower in the rankings will not be favored to win games very often since they do not win games very often themselves. However, continuously taking advantage of underdogs with a plus-money line may be a successful strategy, even if you lose more than half of the bets you place. This is due to the fact that the payments on the gains you do achieve often outweigh the losses.

Even if you win on a moneyline underdog bet less than 50% of the time, you will still make a profit since your victories will come on bets with odds in the +170, +180, and +190 area, which means you will make money. If the bet fails, you just lose the money you put at risk; but, the bets you win may help you increase your bankroll far more rapidly than if you solely place bets on huge moneyline favorites.

The Fading of The Big Favorites in Betting

In spite of the fact that baseball is often seen as a team sport, the outcome of a game is controlled by individual matchups to a significantly greater extent than in football or basketball. At its most fundamental level, baseball is simply nine innings of individual pitcher versus hitting confrontations between two teams of players.

Statistically speaking, MLB betting odds are based on the quality of both teams’ anticipated starting pitchers in the vast majority of situations, according to the oddsmakers.

If a team has its greatest starting pitcher on the mound, for example, that team will almost always be the moneyline favorite versus a team that has its worst starter on the field.

In this case, the betting favorite will almost always be the team that starts a strong right-handed pitcher against a lineup that has a lot of inferior right-handed hitters, according to the oddsmakers. Performing research on a pitcher’s platoon splits as well as his statistical profile against the lineup he will be facing before making a bet on that pitcher’s performance in a game is a good idea.

Fading of The Big Favorites in Betting

Don’t Use The Baseball Parlays

It is popular because bettors observe the large payouts and believe they have a good chance of winning a large sum of money via parlay betting. While your odds of accurately predicting the conclusion of a single game are poor enough, what are your chances of correctly predicting the outcomes of four, five, or six separate games in a single night of wagering?

When it comes to developing an efficient MLB betting strategy, proper bankroll management is essential.

Trying to win parlays and teasers is a sure-fire method to see your money depleted rapidly. If you manage to win a parlay, you may be able to turn your $10 investment into a $1,000 reward. Although the odds are very long, there is a rationale for this. People who squander their money pursuing parlays are a favorite target of bookmakers.

Individual Matchups

While baseball is often thought of as a team sport, the result of a game is determined by individual matchups far more so than in football or basketball. The game of baseball is essentially nine innings of individual pitchers against hitting battles at its most basic level. In the majority of circumstances, baseball betting odds are based on the quality of both teams’ planned starting pitchers, according to the oddsmakers. For example, any club that has its best starting pitcher on the mound will nearly always be a moneyline favorite against a team that has its weakest starter on the field.

The betting favorite will almost always be the club starting a solid right-handed pitcher against a lineup consisting of poor right-handed batters in this situation. It is wise to research a pitcher’s platoon splits as well as his statistical profile versus the lineup he will be facing prior to placing a wager on that pitcher’s performance in a game.

Individual Matchups

Betting Against Public

The general populace does not include a large number of knowledgeable gamblers. Many are just casual gamblers wanting to spice up a game by increasing the odds of winning or losing. The amount of money wagered on a certain side of an MLB betting line affects the odds on that side of the line. Inexperienced baseball gamblers sometimes overestimate the value of popular teams, strong favorites, and home teams.

Because the general public has the ability to influence oddsmakers to modify their lines, you may profit by betting in the other way.

Long-term baseball betting success requires the ability to do line shopping and capitalize on variances in baseball betting odds, both of which are skills that can be learned. Being able to recognize when to adopt a contrarian strategy in opposition to the general public is another technique for making money over the course of a season.

Live Bet Against Pitchers When Going Through Lineup for the Third Time

Live betting, often known as in-play betting, is the act of placing bets on baseball games while the game is still in progress.

In-play betting might include wagering on a team to hit a specified amount of home runs in a single inning or wagering on whether a specific team would win specific innings.

Live betting is a terrific option since it enables you to monitor how the action is progressing before placing any wagers with your money. The top baseball betting sites will have a diverse selection of live betting markets, as well as the ability to watch baseball games in real-time.


If the Yankees are playing the Athletics and the Yankees hit three home runs in a row, the Athletics’ moneyline odds will improve, enabling you to bet on them to win the moneyline at greater odds.

Alternative wagering options include placing a bet on the Yankees losing their starting piLive Bet Against Pitchers When Going Through Lineup for the Third Timetcher due to injury and the backup starting pitcher scoring more than 1.5 runs in the next innings.

Indicators You Need to Know for Baseball Betting

If you are unfamiliar with baseball, you should familiarize yourself with the key statistics before you begin wagering.


ERA (earned run average) was formerly the major metric used to evaluate successful beginning pitching. However, WHIP (walks and hits per inning thrown) has mostly supplanted ERA as the statistic that most fans follow when it comes to pitchers.

This is because WHIP is a more accurate predictor of pitching effectiveness than a pitcher’s ERA, which may be skewed by a team’s defensive deficiencies or inopportune home runs. WHIP, like ERA, is quite straightforward to compute.

It is calculated by multiplying the number of walks and hits allowed by the number of innings thrown. Anything less than 1.00 is quite an accomplishment for a pitcher.

Wins and Losses Records

While the winning record and losing record is sometimes exaggerated, it is an extremely valuable statistic when betting on baseball on the moneyline. Certain pitchers can consistently offer you a terrific start, giving their side a better chance to win. Additionally, a high winning percentage shows that the club has a good bullpen and does not squander leads when the starters leave the game.

If you notice a pitcher with a high WHIP and ERA but few victories, this might be an excellent opportunity to wager on the team for the first five innings rather than the whole game.

Jacob deGrom won the Cy Young Award a couple of years ago despite his lackluster win-loss record. This demonstrates that a pitcher’s win-loss record is not the greatest barometer of his or her ability. This also suggests we should avoid betting the moneyline when deGrom pitches, despite the fact that he was an absolute superstar that year. In those games, betting the Mets on a five-inning wager would have been a wiser idea.

Splits provide another method for delving deeply into a contest.

There are several splits in baseball, but pitching splits are the most important to consider when placing a wager. Pitching splits go deeply into factors such as time of day, lefty/righty, and home/away, and will provide you with the knowledge necessary to succeed when betting on baseball.

Pitching Splits


Home/Road Splits

Visit your favorite baseball statistics website and examine the starting pitcher’s home and road performance. This may seem to be a straightforward statistic, however, certain pitchers exhibit significant fluctuation in performance depending on their location. Everyone expects that a pitcher pitching in a hitter-friendly stadium would have huge home/away splits, which is sometimes true, but a lot of pitchers struggle in one location or another. Make no assumption that a pitcher is superior at home since many pitchers wind up posting stronger away stats. If you have a pitcher that is dominant at home and the opposing pitcher suffers on the road, this might be an excellent time to place a wager due to the abundance of value available.


Lefty/Righty Splits

Lefty/righty is a term that is recognizable to the majority of baseball fans. Late in the game, a manager will summon a lefty from the bullpen to face the other team’s left-handed batter. However, when betting on a game, you want more than simply the batting average versus a certain pitcher’s handedness. Numerous websites allow you to compare a team’s OPS (on-base plus slugging) versus righties and lefties. Certain teams are stacked with their strongest hitters on the same side. This information may be used to identify an underdog and use The Underdog Strategy, which will be discussed momentarily.


Day/Night Splits

Day/night is another excellent divide to use, however it should be used with care. While this statistic is quite important, it may be affected early in the season by a particularly dismal day game start. Due to the rarity of day games in comparison to night games, you want to maximize your chances of bringing this number closer to the usual mean. Consider the season before the current one while examining this figure. This statistic is more helpful if you can get a career number since this reduces the likelihood that it will be biased by a number that contains an extraordinary performance, whether positive or negative.


Baseball has more winning and losing streaks than any other professional sport. That is presumably due to the fact that hitting a baseball requires both confidence and talent, and confidence is infectious. Because success feeds success, it is usual to see teams go on hot-hitting streaks throughout a regular Major League Baseball season. Because sportsbooks often underreact to such streaks, it may be quite simple to profit from them.

The same logic applies to a heated pitcher. A starting pitcher may have to deal with the same situation game after game. Keep an eye out for pitchers who are having a particularly strong stretch of starts and consider betting appropriately, since the moneyline will almost certainly be in your favor.

The Effect of Weather on Baseball

You may be shocked at how sluggish some baseball gamblers can be when it comes to placing their wagers. The weather is one component that is often disregarded. While it may seem inconsequential, the weather conditions may have a significant impact on the result of a baseball game and the development of a winning baseball betting strategy.

Games that are played in warm weather, for example, tend to have higher scoring averages.

When the air gets heated, the density of the air is reduced. A batted ball will go farther in warm circumstances with less air density than in cold situations with higher air density since there is less friction against the ball in flight. The ball’s flight will be affected by the wind conditions as well. The infield will be more difficult to hit home runs in if the wind is blowing in from the right side of the field and blowing fiercely toward the infield. This is an essential factor to consider when placing baseball wagers.

The elevation is also important. Denver is nicknamed the “Mile High City” because it is positioned a mile above sea level, making it the highest city in Colorado. At higher heights, the density of the air is reduced, resulting in the ball traveling farther through the air. As a result, Coors Field, the home of the Colorado Rockies, is considered to be the most hitter-friendly stadium in the major leagues. It is nearly usually the case that the over/under for baseball games played in Denver will be greater than the over/under for games played in other cities located at lower altitudes.

As a result, before placing a wager on a particular game, it would be wise to research the weather conditions in the city in question.

Last updated on 20 Jan 2023 - 13:25

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